A Closer Look at Africa: Climate Change and Food Production

It is highlighted in Gerland et al, 2014 that much of the population increase we will experience over this century will occur in Africa. In particular, this is said to be due to the slower fertility decline experienced in Sub Saharan African. Gerland et al (2014) recognise that this increase in population will cause severe shortages in resources.

This post will focus on agriculture in Africa in relation to climate change, and look at what can be done to solve these problems. 

The IPCC 2007 report on 'Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' in regards to climate change, identifies that there are a range of factors associated with climate change that will affect African countries. These include issues such as the decrease in grain yields and changes in run off and water availability. These factors will be made more difficult by population changes, as there is a shift from rural to urban lifestyles across the continent, causing an increased demand for staple foods, and increased competition for land (World Bank, 2012).  

The map below is taken from research preformed by the The International Livestock Research Institute (2006) . It shows areas of vulnerability to climate change across the continent. It is clear that there is vulnerability across most of the continent, with high vulnerability in Ethiopia. 

Quartiles of Vulnerability in Africa (Quartile one = less vulnerable, Quartile four = most vulnerable)  Source: Mapping Climate Vulnerability in Africa (2006)

It seems climate change and population hand in hand is a recipe for disaster. However are there ways around the problems? Morton (2007) indicates that small holder and subsistence farming in Africa is most at risk to changes in climate and actions must be taken by farmers to adapt. He stresses that a framework is needed to understand the impacts on substance farmers with an understanding that changes are locally specific and complex. This is exemplified in the work of Mortimore and Adams (2001), cited in Morton (2007), who look at 5 elements of adaptation that are already occurring in Nigeria, such as diversifying livelihoods and working land harder. 

Other ways of reliving the issue associated with climate change include bringing more land into agriculture, expanding trade for subsistence farmers to minimise risks and changing diets to reduce the consumption of meat (Godfray et al, 2010).  Another option is a turn towards new HYV and modified crops which are able to cope with warming climates (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). This certainly worked back in the 1940/50's during the Green Revolution, however will this have knock on effects of land degradation for further generations? 

What is agreed by all is the fact that agricultural productivity improvements in Africa are needed to cope with more people and a changing environment. There are many ways of going about this, yet i think that a multi faceted approach is needed, combining new technologies and global strategies, with locally specific planning.