The Demise of the Norse

In this post I am going to look at the Norse civilisation in Greenland and how they came to their demise. I look at the literature to question whether or not this had anything to do with climate change. I think it is important to look at the collapse of civilisations in the past not only because i find it interesting, but also because it could give us some pointers on how we could deal with climate change in the future. 

In 986AD, Eric the Red and his followers began settling in Greenland in search of land and resources. At this time, the climate was fairly nice for the Norse, however at around 1300AD the temperature began to cool abruptly the Little Ice Age set in at 1400 AD.

This Graph uses evidence from two lake sediment cores to determine the temperature of Greenland through different civilisations (D'Andrea et al, 2011)

This Graph shows evidence of climate change occurring over the period when the Norse occupied Greenland, but was it the cause of their demise?  There is no arguing that the change in climate will have had a major affect on the lifestyles of the Norse:

A cooler climate = Soil degradation affecting -> Agriculture -> food sources-> Economies and trade -> PEOPLE

A cooler climate = Increased sea ice affecting -> Trade Routes -> Economies -> PEOPLE

But there is a big debate in the literature over whether climate change was the main factor in the Norse demise. It seems odd that the Little Ice Age also took its toll on Iceland, however the Vikings survived there. McGovern (1991) suggests that the Norse chose not to adapt to the changing climatic conditions and suck with their traditional routines, causing them to ultimately die. Dugmore et al (2007)  argue that changing market conditions in the European market, with the re-introduction of elephant ivory, heighten the sensitivity of the Norse to climate change causing their collapse. Rather, Diamond (2005) suggests that it could have been down to an increased hostility with the Inuit, leading to unrest.

There has been much Palaeoenvironmental research undertaken to understand the collapse of the the Norse (see Edwards et al, 2011; Perren et al, 2012; and D'Andrea et al, 2011). Scientists observe the changes which took place in the flora and fauna in relation to climate at that time. All show that Norse farming did not have a big imprint on environmental proxies, indicating little agricultural change and making conclusions difficult to draw. However, it should be noted that no single and continuous mutiproxy record has been obtained within the immediate region of a Norse site in Greenland (Perren et al, 2012). This should be completed in order to gain more thorough Palaeoenvironmental knowledge which should be able to provide more evidence for the demise of the Norse between 1480- 1500 AD.

Overall, i think this topic is so interesting is because i feel it shows how climate change has an impact on many different things. Changes in climate cause a chain reaction and result on consequences on populations which affect lifestyles significantly. I look forward to reading more research on the Norse culture in the future!

                                                               Eric the Red

Looking back to Gerland et al (2014)

Lets do some reflection and get down to the nitty gritty...

So far, we have looked at the history of population estimations, with a focus on the 7 billion milestone in 2011, and have also looked at climate change in Africa, the power of younger populations and whether reducing human populations will help environmental problems.

In this post i want to go right back to the beginning and pick apart the report that this blog is based around - 'World Population stabilisation Unlikey this Century' which states population will increase to 10.9 billion in 2100.

The report uses data from the third revision of probabilistic population projections based on the 'World population prospects: The 2012 Revision'.The probabilistic estimates are based around historical data of population by age and sex, fertility, mortality and migration rates trend between 1950 and 2010.

So first of all lets look at the positives of the report and the data it uses....

- The report highlights that probabilistic projections give the ability to quantify our confidence in future trends - This is great, as it ensures we have a good idea of what will happen in the future and allows us to plan for these demographic and population changes. 

- Data is incorporated from every country and area of the world (UNESA, 2014) -  Fab a complete data set!

- Data includes information on incidence, prevalence and treatment for countries most effected by HIV and Aids which has not been included before - Including more data from different sources helps to ensure more accurate projections.

Now lets look at some of the problems with the report and the data it uses ....

- The supplementary report for the article indicates that the probabilistic projections do not incorporate uncertainty about future age patterns of fertility and mortality, or international net migration - This means that the confidence levels for the projections that use this data are not as precise as they could be.

- The supplementary report for the article also states that the data is subject to a time lag between the latest available data and the base year for the projection - This is ultimately inevitable, however it does mean that the data used is not the most recent data, which, if used, could produce slightly different estimations.

- As highlighted within the report, the UN projections are reliant on a continuation of existing policies - UN policies are subject to change, particularly if population is to increase, therefore the effects of changing UN policies on probabilistic population projections could be an area for further research?

- Again highlighted in the report, The projections don't take into account the negative effects from the environmental consequences of the population increase - This is the big crux of the report. We do not know how the environment will change because of this population increase and therefore there is still uncertainty in saying that the population will not stabilise in this century. This calls for more research into how an increase in population will effect the environment, in order to know whether this will have an effect on the population. 

A Crash Course in Malthus

Heres a just a fun, short video running you past everything you need to know about the Malthus and the history of population! Enjoy!