Can you Really Comprehend World Population?

Can you imagine what more than 7 billion people people look like? 

According to Google it takes 1 years, 251 days, 7 hours, 46 minutes, and 40 seconds to count to 1 billion... Never mind 7 billion! 

But what about if all population was represented on one page?

Check out the link below to see what the world's population on one page looks like and watch it grow....

http://www.worldometers.info/watch/world-population/

Its slightly scary when you put it all on one page isn't it?!

I think this really puts into perspective the extent of population growth, and hits home that something needs to be done about it. It truly makes you think about the stress that the sheer amount of people are exerting on our planet.

The History of Population Estimates

Although population estimates and their consequences can be seem as a fairly recent and trendy topic to study, we have been counting people for thousands of years. However, what has differed over the years is the reasons why population data has been collected...

The first census known to have been recorded was by the Babylonians in 3800 B.C. and not only counted the number of people, but also the number of livestock and quantities of food such as milk and honey (Census, 2011). This suggests that the Babylonians were quite forward thinking when it comes to environmental concern, considering the amount of food and the number of mouths to feed - a problem we are still trying to work on to this day!

The first census completed in England was the Doomsday book in 1086. It was ordered by William the Conquer, whom invaded the country in 1066. The reason behind the survey however, was not knowledge but money, as the purpose of the survey was for the King to find out how much tax he was owed from settlements across England. The book is now however a window into the population of the past and also providing extensive knowledge about settlements and landscapes across England in the 11th century.

To discover more about the Doomsday book and delve into the history of your town or village visit: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/domesday/

The first official UK census as we know it today was commissioned in 1801 and was prompted by the work of Malthus (a big name in population studies!) In his book 'An Essay on the Principle of Population' (1798), he argues that population will increase exponentially whilst food supply will increase arithmetically causing famine and poverty across the world (Malthus, 1798). In light of this, the 1801 census was commissioned in the UK and has been undertaken every 10 years since. This shows how concern for the capacity of the environment prompted the need to record the number of people within the country.

The Mid 19th Century marks the date when a mutual agreement was reached about the history of the world and continental population growth after 1650. This consensus was based on 2 publications about population estimates: "Studies in American Demography" by WIllcox (1940)  and "World Population: past Growth and past trends" by Carr-Saunders (1936) (Caldwell and Schindlmayr, 2002). These estimates were later legitimised by the UN Population Division in 1951.

Since then, the UN Population Devision has been constantly monitoring population changes across the world in different publications. This then brings us back to the most recent statistics by the UN that world population will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100 (Gerland, 2014). The reason the UN undertake population estimates is stated on their website:

'Over the years, the Division has played an active role in the intergovernmental dialogue on population and development, producing constantly updated demographic estimates and projections for all countries, including data essential for the monitoring of the progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals...' (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/about/index.shtml)

It is clear that the UN is putting these projections into context by applying the estimates to targets for the future improvement. This is the main purpose of population research nowadays, as it is no longer just about knowing how many people are on this Earth, it is about planning the future population. With the number of people growing, it is critical to think about the future global environment and plan for a greater number of people on earth.

Welcome!

'Our analysis of these data show that world population can be expected to increase from the current 7.2 billion people to 9.6 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100'  (Gerland et al, 2014)

Now that's a lot of people!

Welcome to my blog - a blog based around the subject of population. The main focus of this blog will be centred around the report published in September by Gerland et al, 2014 which analyses UN population projections based on data until 2012 to conclude that population will not stop rising within this century. Is this estimate accurate or will we see a different population pattern unfold? 

Source: Gerland et al, 2014

It feels only like 2 minutes ago when I was sitting in a Geography class on the 31st October 2011 discussing the fact that this was the day in which we lived amongst 7 billion people. This seemed scary enough back then, but the thought that population will not stabilise in this century is an even more frightening concept.

My blog will use this report as a starting point, looking at the history of population estimates and arguments which run counter to the report.  I will also look at policy implications for the report.

However, the underlying tone of this blog and a subject which i will continue to revert back to, is the effect of increased population on the global environment. How will the planet cope with an increased number of people and indeed WILL it cope? This is a point which i will continue to examine from different standpoints throughout the blog. 

I hope you enjoy reading!