A round up..

And now my blogging has come to an end..

I hope you enjoyed reading this blog although I know have only scratched the surface with what has been discussed here. I have tried to use current information from the media to look at how population change and the global environment affects one another. There has been a large focus on UN policies throughout which I feel is important as it ensures that problems are considered from a global scale and not just on a national level. 

What I have learnt from this blog:

1) Education is key - I feel that a sustainable development and population increase can only compliment each other if people are informed about the the problems and inspired to come up with solutions.

2) The problems that the earth's population imposes on the Earth are real - they cannot be ignored or put off for future generation to deal with. 

3) There is no easy solution when adapting to or limiting population growth! 


On one final note, let me leave you with this...

London's Calling

In this post, I would like to bring things closer to home and focus on London, my home city. In a report published this week by London First named ' London 2036: Driving jobs and Growth in the Capital' , it states that in early 2015, (It was 6th January to be precise!) London's population will go beyond the 1939 post war peak in population to reach 8.6 million, and will later climb to 10 million by the end of the 2030's (London First, 2015).  It is said that the City's insatiable economy, attraction for new comers, falling death rates and increasing birth rates are the factors which are driving the population increase within the capital (Guardian, 2015).

This may be seen in quite a positive light. It has meant that the 'counter-urbanisation' which was experienced after the war has been turned on it's head and London is now the largest city in the EU (Washington post,2015). These factors are great from a political and economic point of view as it shows that London and therefore the UK is prospering.

However, the struggles and challenges that come with an increased population within the city cannot be avoided. The main issues  focussed on by the media are  housing and transport, both which are underinvested in at present. The Financial Times (2015) states that on both a national and a regional level, policy makers have failed to keep up with London's growth and therefore policy is playing catch up when it comes to population. 

Let's turn to Boris to get his input:

 ‘It’s something that politicians can’t control, we can’t determine how many babies are going to be born in London. It’s a great tribute in a way to the city that people have such confidence in it that they are having families and they are choosing to remain in London. What people like me have got to do is try and prepare, try and make sure we have the transport and the housing infrastructure to cope. In the end I think obviously we’re going to have a debate about the ultimate size of the population of the UK.’  Boris Johnston (Time Out, 2015)

Is the first line of his statement strictly true? He is discounting the fact that estimates can be made (as shown in the report) and therefore is he maybe trying to cover his back for the fact that politicians are unprepared when it comes to this population increase within the city? Cities are important entities to focus on when considering population and sustainable policy choices, as we are now living in an increasingly urbanised world.  Continued urbanisation and population growth is estimated to add 2.5 billion people to the worlds urban population by 2050, 90% of which will be located in Asia and Africa (UN Department of economic and Social Affairs, 2014). The report policy suggestions state that city planner should ensure a more balanced distribution of urban growth which is shared equally and sustainably. This means that debates around population change globally prioritise  cities and their adaptation to change within their discussions. 

He is however right about the fact that there needs to be a future debate surrounding the size of the UK's population as a result of these statistics. The city of London should not be left on its own to tackle these issues, and government on a national level needs to join the discussions, due to the challenges that this increase in population will bring. There needs to be plans put in place on how to accommodate this increasing number of people within the UK. However, if in reality the government is unable to do this, then population policy measures need to be implemented. This could be done through economic measures such as taxation, or through social measures such as media campaigns. This is the harsh reality that the country will have to face if it cannot provide the infrastructure needed for the expansion of the capital.

Is there an App. for that?

Here's just a fun thing i found today! Its an app for you iPhone or iPad called 'Overpopulation' which displays the current and future population of the world. It also shows the population of countries under different scenarios. It aims to educate people of the dangers of overpopulation, using the ratio between the Ecological Footprint and the Biocapacity of all countries in the world to calculate the population sizes.

Download it today.....It's free!!

https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/id939446245

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! 

But what will 2015 bring for both us and the environment...

To look at what this year holds, I will concentrate on the Lima Climate Change conference to analyse the policies regarding climate change and their implications for the population.

In 1994, the UN framework Convention on Climate Change was set up to reduce green house gas concentrations. The Lima conference in December 2014 was the the 20th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) which is designed to be the governing body of the convention (COP20, 2014). The conference lasted 2 weeks setting out a new agreement on climate change.

'Nations concluded by elaborating the elements of the new agreement, scheduled to be agreed in Paris in late 2015, while also agreeing the ground rules on how all countries can submit contributions to the new agreement during the first quarter of next year.' (UNFCCC, 2014) - This statement, taken from the conference's press release, uses the word 'agree' a lot of times and is pretty long winded!! It make me question whether the conference actually achieved anything or was it all just talk about what will happen at the next conference?

From what can be seen so far, there are some very positive outcomes for the population. Pledges were made by countries to raise the Green Climate Fund, bringing the total up to 10.2 billion (UNFCCC, 2014). There was also a decision to increase the adaptation fund for small island states which face rising sea levels and extreme weather (Guardian, 2014). My favourite outcome however, was that the Lima Ministerial Declaration which states that governments must put climate change on the school curriculum. As discussed in this blog before, EDUCATION will be key to managing climate change, so i feel this decision will give people knowledge about the global environment and therefore give them power to change it. 

I don't want to get too excited, as only draft decision files have been released, so overall it is difficult to say too much about the outcome of the conference as yet. It is important to bear in mind policy pledges are not sufficient to prevent the worst impact scenarios of climate change (Dimitrov, 2010). Also, as stated above, these decisions are set to be agreed in 2015, and also form the foundation to the climate action post 2020, when the new agreement is set to come into effect. This shows that we might have to wait around quite a while before these things actually start to make changes in greenhouse gas emissions...

The Demise of the Norse

In this post I am going to look at the Norse civilisation in Greenland and how they came to their demise. I look at the literature to question whether or not this had anything to do with climate change. I think it is important to look at the collapse of civilisations in the past not only because i find it interesting, but also because it could give us some pointers on how we could deal with climate change in the future. 

In 986AD, Eric the Red and his followers began settling in Greenland in search of land and resources. At this time, the climate was fairly nice for the Norse, however at around 1300AD the temperature began to cool abruptly the Little Ice Age set in at 1400 AD.

This Graph uses evidence from two lake sediment cores to determine the temperature of Greenland through different civilisations (D'Andrea et al, 2011)

This Graph shows evidence of climate change occurring over the period when the Norse occupied Greenland, but was it the cause of their demise?  There is no arguing that the change in climate will have had a major affect on the lifestyles of the Norse:

A cooler climate = Soil degradation affecting -> Agriculture -> food sources-> Economies and trade -> PEOPLE

A cooler climate = Increased sea ice affecting -> Trade Routes -> Economies -> PEOPLE

But there is a big debate in the literature over whether climate change was the main factor in the Norse demise. It seems odd that the Little Ice Age also took its toll on Iceland, however the Vikings survived there. McGovern (1991) suggests that the Norse chose not to adapt to the changing climatic conditions and suck with their traditional routines, causing them to ultimately die. Dugmore et al (2007)  argue that changing market conditions in the European market, with the re-introduction of elephant ivory, heighten the sensitivity of the Norse to climate change causing their collapse. Rather, Diamond (2005) suggests that it could have been down to an increased hostility with the Inuit, leading to unrest.

There has been much Palaeoenvironmental research undertaken to understand the collapse of the the Norse (see Edwards et al, 2011; Perren et al, 2012; and D'Andrea et al, 2011). Scientists observe the changes which took place in the flora and fauna in relation to climate at that time. All show that Norse farming did not have a big imprint on environmental proxies, indicating little agricultural change and making conclusions difficult to draw. However, it should be noted that no single and continuous mutiproxy record has been obtained within the immediate region of a Norse site in Greenland (Perren et al, 2012). This should be completed in order to gain more thorough Palaeoenvironmental knowledge which should be able to provide more evidence for the demise of the Norse between 1480- 1500 AD.

Overall, i think this topic is so interesting is because i feel it shows how climate change has an impact on many different things. Changes in climate cause a chain reaction and result on consequences on populations which affect lifestyles significantly. I look forward to reading more research on the Norse culture in the future!

                                                               Eric the Red

Looking back to Gerland et al (2014)

Lets do some reflection and get down to the nitty gritty...

So far, we have looked at the history of population estimations, with a focus on the 7 billion milestone in 2011, and have also looked at climate change in Africa, the power of younger populations and whether reducing human populations will help environmental problems.

In this post i want to go right back to the beginning and pick apart the report that this blog is based around - 'World Population stabilisation Unlikey this Century' which states population will increase to 10.9 billion in 2100.

The report uses data from the third revision of probabilistic population projections based on the 'World population prospects: The 2012 Revision'.The probabilistic estimates are based around historical data of population by age and sex, fertility, mortality and migration rates trend between 1950 and 2010.

So first of all lets look at the positives of the report and the data it uses....

- The report highlights that probabilistic projections give the ability to quantify our confidence in future trends - This is great, as it ensures we have a good idea of what will happen in the future and allows us to plan for these demographic and population changes. 

- Data is incorporated from every country and area of the world (UNESA, 2014) -  Fab a complete data set!

- Data includes information on incidence, prevalence and treatment for countries most effected by HIV and Aids which has not been included before - Including more data from different sources helps to ensure more accurate projections.

Now lets look at some of the problems with the report and the data it uses ....

- The supplementary report for the article indicates that the probabilistic projections do not incorporate uncertainty about future age patterns of fertility and mortality, or international net migration - This means that the confidence levels for the projections that use this data are not as precise as they could be.

- The supplementary report for the article also states that the data is subject to a time lag between the latest available data and the base year for the projection - This is ultimately inevitable, however it does mean that the data used is not the most recent data, which, if used, could produce slightly different estimations.

- As highlighted within the report, the UN projections are reliant on a continuation of existing policies - UN policies are subject to change, particularly if population is to increase, therefore the effects of changing UN policies on probabilistic population projections could be an area for further research?

- Again highlighted in the report, The projections don't take into account the negative effects from the environmental consequences of the population increase - This is the big crux of the report. We do not know how the environment will change because of this population increase and therefore there is still uncertainty in saying that the population will not stabilise in this century. This calls for more research into how an increase in population will effect the environment, in order to know whether this will have an effect on the population. 

A Crash Course in Malthus

Heres a just a fun, short video running you past everything you need to know about the Malthus and the history of population! Enjoy!